DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1085.2013.00326

Advances in Polar Science 2013/24:4 PP.326-338

Analysis of recent climate change over the Arctic using ERA-Interim reanalysis data

This study investigates recent climate change over the Arctic and its link to the mid-latitudes using the ERA-Interim global atmospheric reanalysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast(ECMWF).Since 1979,substantial surface warming,associated with the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases,has occurred over the Arctic.The greatest warming in winter has taken place offshore in the Kara-Barents Sea,and is associated with the increase in turbulent heat fluxes from the marginal ice zone.In contrast to the marked warming over the Arctic Ocean in winter,substantial cooling appears over Siberia and eastern Asia,linked to the reduction of Arctic sea ice during the freezing season(September-March).However,in summer,very little change is observed in surface air temperature over the Arctic because increased radiative heat melts the sea ice and the amount of turbulent heat gain from the ocean is relatively small.The heat stored in the upper ocean mixed layer in summer with the opening of the Arctic Ocean is released back to the atmosphere as turbulent heat fluxes during the autumn and through to the following spring.This warming of the Arctic and the reduced sea ice amplifies surface cooling over Siberia and eastern Asia in winter.

Key words:Arctic climate,Arctic sea ice,cold surge,surface temperature,sea surface temperature,Arctic Oscillation

ReleaseDate:2015-04-16 13:27:18

1 IPCC. Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of working group 1 to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, 2007.

2 Mann M E, Zhang Z, Rutherfold S, et al. Global signatures and dynamical origins of the little ice age and medieval climate anomaly. Science, 2009, 326(5957): 1256-1260.

3 Manabe S, Stouffer R J. Sensitivity of a global climate model to an increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. J Geophys Res, 1980, 85(C10): 5529-5554.

4 Holland M M, Bitz C M. Polar amplification of climate change in coupled models. Climate Dyn, 2003, 21(3-4): 221-232.

5 Fedorov A V, Brierly C M, Lawrence K T, et al. Patterns and mechanisms of early Pliocene warmth. Nature, 2013, 496(7443): 43-49.

6 Steig E J, Schneider D P, Rutherford S D, et al. Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year. Nature, 2009, 457(7228): 459-463.

7 O'Donell R, Lewis N, McIntyre S, et al. Improved methods for PCA-based reconstructions: case study using the Steig et al. (2009) Antarctic temperature reconstruction. J Climate, 2011, 24(8): 2099-2115.

8 Graverson R G, Mauritsen T, Tjernstrom M, et al. Vertical structure of recent Arctic warming. Nature, 2008, 451(7174): 53-56.

9 Screen J A, Simmonds I. The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification. Nature, 2010, 464(7293): 1334-1337.

10 Hansen J, Sato M, Ruedy R. Radiative forcing and climate response. J Geophys Res, 1997, 102(D6): 6831-6864.

11 Serreze M C, Francis J A. The Arctic amplification debate. Climate Change, 2006, 76(3-4): 241-264.

12 Serreze M C, Barry R G Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis. Global and Planetary Change, 2011, 77(1-2): 85-96.

13 Miller G H, Alley E B, Brigham-Grette J, et al. Arctic amplification: can past constrain the future? Quat Sci Rev, 2010, 29(15-16): 1779-1790.

14 Graverson R G, Wang M. Polar amplification in a coupled climate model with locked albedo. Climate Dyn, 2009, 33(5): 629-643.

15 Alexander M A, Bhatt U S, Walsh J E, et al. The atmospheric response to realistic Arctic sea ice anomalies in an AGCM during winter. J Climate, 2004, 17(5): 890-905.

16 Magnusdottir G, Deser C, Saravanan R. The effects of North Atlantic SST and sea ice anomalies on the winter circulation in CCM3. Part 1: Main features and storm track characteristics of the response. J Climate, 2004, 17(5): 857-876.

17 Honda M, Inoue J, Yamane S. Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys Res Lett, 2009, 36(L08707), doi: 10.1029/2008GL037079.

18 Seierstad, I A, Bader J. Impact of a projected future Arctic sea ice reduction on extratropical storminess and the NAO. Climate Dyn, 2009, 33(7-8): 937-943.

19 Overland J E, Wang M. Large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are associated with the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 2010, 62A: 1-9, doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00421.x.

20 Petoukhov V, Semenov V A. A link between reduced Barents-Kara sea ice and cold winter extremes over northern continents. J Geophys Res, 2010, 115(D21111), doi: 10.1029/2009JD013568.

21 Deser C, Tomas R, Alexander M, et al. The seasonal atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss in the late twenty-first century. J Climate, 2010, 23(2): 333-351.

22 Hori M E, Inoue J, Kikuchi T, et al. Recurrence of intraseasonal cold air outbreak during the 2009/2010 winter in Japan and its ties to the atmospheric condition over the Barents-Kara Sea. SOLA, 2011, 7: 25-28.

23 Hopsch S, Cohen J, Dethloff K. Analysis of a link between fall Arctic sea ice concentration and atmospheric patterns in the following winter. Tellus, 2012, 64A: 1-12.

24 Cohen J, Entekhabi D. Eurasian snow cover variability and northern hemisphere climate predictability. J Geophys Res, 1999, 26(3): 345-348.

25 Cohen J, Entekhabi D. The influence of snow cover on northern hemisphere climate variability. Atmos-Ocean, 2001, 39(1): 35-53.

26 Saito K, Cohen J, Entekhabi D. Evolution of atmospheric response to early-season Eurasian snow cover anomalies. Mon Wea Rev, 2001, 129: 2746-2760.

27 Gong G, Entekhabi D, Cohen J. Modelled northern hemisphere winter climate response to realistic Siberian snow anomalies. J Climate, 2003, 16(23): 3917-3931.

28 Lü J M, Ju J H, Kim S J, et al. Arctic oscillation and the autumn/winter snow depth over the Tibetan Plateau. J Geophys Res, 2008, 113(D14117),doi: 10.1029/2007JD009567.

29 Orsolini Y J, Kvamsto N G. Role of Eurasian snow cover in wintertime circulation: Decadal simulations forced with satellite observations. J Geophys Res, 2009, 114(D1910), doi: 10.1029/2009JD012253.

30 Jaiser R, Detholff K, Handorf D, et al. Impact of sea ice cover changes on the northern hemisphere atmospheric winter circulation. Tellus A, 2012, 64, doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v64i0.11595.

31 Cohen J L, Furtado J, Barlow M, et al. Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling. Environ Res Lett, 2012, 7(014007), doi: 10.1088/17489-9326/7/1/014007.

32 Kuroda Y, Kodera K. Role of planetary waves in the strato-sphere-troposphere coupled variability in the northern hemisphere winter. Geophys Res Lett, 1999, 26(15): 2375-2378.

33 Zhou S T, Miller A J, Wang J L, et al. Downward-propagating temperature anomalies in the preconditioned polar stratosphere. J Climate, 2002, 15(7): 781-792.

34 Fletcher C G, Kushner P, Cohen J. Stratospheric control of the extratropi-cal circulation response to surface forcing. Geophys Res Lett, 2007, 34(L21802), doi: 10.1029/2007GL031626.

35 Fletcher C G, Hardiman S C, Kushner P, et al. The dynamical response to snow cover perturbations in a large ensemble of atmospheric GCM integrations. J Climate, 2008, 22(5): 1208-1222.

36 Ghatak D, Frei A, Gong G, et al. On the emergence of an Arctic amplification signal in terrestrial Arctic snow extent. J Geophys Res, 2010, 115(D24105), doi: 10.1029/2010JD014007.

37 Ghatak D, Deser C, Frei A, et al. Simulated Siberian snow cover response to observed Arctic sea ice loss, 1979-2008. J Geophys Res, 2012, 117(D23108), doi: 10.1029/2012JD018047.

38 Liu J, Curry J A, Wang H, et al. Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA, 2012, 109(11): 4074-4079.

39 Dee D P, Uppala S M, Simmons A J, et al. The Era-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc, 2009, 137(656): 553-597.

40 Brunke M A, Wang Z, Zeng X B, et al. An assessment of the uncertainties in ocean surface turbulent fluxes in 11 reanalysis, satellite-derived, and combined global datasets. J Climate, 2011, 24(21): 5469-5493.

41 Jeong J H, Ou T H, Linderholm H W, et al. The recent recovery of the Siberian high intensity. J Geophys Res, 2011, 116(D23102), doi: 10.1029/2011JD015904.

42 Outten A D, Esau I. A link between Arctic sea ice and recent cooling trends over Eurasia. Climatic Change, 2012, 110(3-4): 1069-1075.