doi:

DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1042.2017.00486

Advances in Psychological Science (心理科学进展) 2017/25:3 PP.486-499

Risk-sensitivity theory: Need motivates risky decision-making


Abstract:
Risk-sensitivity theory, which is based on experimental examination of the foraging behavior of animals, proposes that decision makers shift from risk aversion to risk preference in situations of need. As a biological theory of decision making, predications based on risk sensitivity theory has been supported by both animal studies and studies involve human participants. Existing evidence suggests that risk-sensitivity theory can account for various patterns of decision-making in a wide range of domains. It's necessary to provide a systematic review of risk-sensitivity theory, including its theoretical speculation, main arguments, and development of mathematical models. Distinctions among risk sensitivity theory and other well-established theories were also speculated in consideration of the reference point. Risk-sensitivity theory contributes to the literature as it provides additional explanations for shifts in individuals' risk taking tendencies under a wide range of situational factors, including changes in economic inequality and power.

Key words:Risk-sensitivity theory,need,reference point,economic inequality,power

ReleaseDate:2017-04-10 17:44:42



管延华, 迟毓凯, 戴金浩. (2014). 权力对风险决策偏好的影响. 心理研究, 7(4), 42-47.

李纾, 房永青, 张迅捷. (2000). 再探框架对风险决策行为的影响. 心理学报, 32(2), 229-234.

李纾. (2016). 决策心理:齐当别之道. 上海:华东师范大学出版社.

饶俪琳, 梁竹苑, 李纾. (2009). 迫选规则体验法:检验规范性和描述性风险决策理论的新尝试. 心理学报, 41(8), 726-736.

王晓田, 王鹏. (2013). 决策的三参照点理论:从原理到应用. 心理科学进展, 21(8), 1331-1346.

王晓田, 陆静怡. (2016). 进化的智慧与决策的理性. 上海:华东师范大学出版社.

张晨. (2012). 青少年风险敏感决策的人格影响因素:基于刚性与弹性需要情境(硕士学位论文). 宁夏大学, 银川.

Anderson, C., & Galinksy, A. D. (2006). Power, optimism, and risk-taking. European Journal of Social Psychology, 36, 511-536.

Barkow, J. (1989). Darwin, sex, and status. Toronto, Ontario, Canada:University of Toronto Press.

Bernoulli, D. (1954). Exposition of a new theory on the measurement of risk. Econometrica, 22, 23-36.

Blalock, G., Just, D. R., & Simon, D. H. (2007). Hitting the jackpot or hitting the skids:Entertainment, poverty, and the demand for state lotteries. American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 66, 545-570.

Bugental, D. B. (2000). Acquisition of the algorithms of social life:A domain-based approach. Psychological Bulletin, 126, 187-219.

Buss, D. M. (2009). The great struggles of life:Darwin and the emergence of evolutionary psychology. American Psychologist, 64, 140-148.

Caraco, T., Martindale, S., & Whittam, T. S. (1980). An empirical demonstration of risk-sensitive foraging preferences. Animal Behavior, 28, 820-830.

Confer, J. C., Easton, J. A., Fleischman, D. S., Goetz, C. D., Lewis, D. M. G., Perrilloux, C., & Buss, D. M. (2010). Evolutionary psychology:Controversies, questions, prospects, and limitations. American Psychologist, 65, 110-126.

Daly, M., & Wilson, M. (2001). Risk-taking, intrasexual competition, and homicide. Nebraska Symposium on Motivation, 47, 1-36.

Daly, M., Wilson, M., & Vasdev, S. (2001). Income inequality and homicide rates in Canada and the United States. Canadian Journal of Criminology, 43, 219-236.

Duntley, J. D., & Buss, D. M. (2008). Evolutionary psychology is a metatheory for psychology. Psychological Inquiry, 19, 30-34.

Ermer, E., Cosmides, L., & Tooby, J. (2008). Relative status regulates risky decision making about resources in men:Evidence for the co-evolution of motivation and cognition. Evolution and Human Behavior, 29, 106-118.

Friedman, M., & Savage, L. J. (1952). The expected-utility hypothesis and the measurability of utility. Journal of Political Economy, 60, 463-474.

Gold, R., Kennedy, B., Connell, F., & Kawachi, I. (2002). Teen births, income inequality, and social capital:Developing an understanding of the causal pathway. Health & Place, 8, 77-83.

Hadar, L., & Fox, C. R. (2009). Information asymmetry in decision from description versus decision from experience. Judgment and Decision Making, 4, 317-325.

Heath, C., Larrick, R. P., & Wu, G. (1999). Goals as reference points. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 79-109.

Hertwig, R., Barron, G., Weber, E. U., & Erev, I. (2004). Decisions from experience and the effect of rare events in risky choice. Psychological Science, 15, 534-539.

Higgins, E. T. (1997). Beyond pleasure and pain. American Psychologist, 52, 1280-1300.

Hill, S. E., & Buss, D. M. (2010). Risk and relative social rank:Positional concerns and risky shifts in probabilistic decision-making. Evolution and Human Behavior, 31, 219-226.Hurly, A. T. (2003). The twin threshold model:Risk-intermediate foraging by rufous hummingbirds, Selasphorus rufus. Animal Behaviour, 66, 751-761.

Isen, A. M., Nygren, T. E., & Ashby, F. G. (1988). Influence of positive affect on the subjective utility of gains and losses:It's just not worth the risk. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 55, 710-717.

Island, H. K. D., Szalda-Petree, A. D., & Kucera, S. C. (2007). Sex differences in risk sensitivity under positive and negative budgets and predictors of choice. The Journal of General Psychology, 134, 435-452.

Jordan, J., Sivanathan, N., & Galinsky, A. D. (2011). Something to lose and nothing to gain:The role of stress in the interactive effect of power and stability on risk taking. Administrative Science Quarterly, 56(4), 530-558.

Kacelnik, A., & Bateson, M. (1996). Risky theories:The effects of variance on foraging decisions. American Zoologist, 36, 402-443.

Kacelnik, A., & Bateson, M. (1997). Risk-sensitivity:Crossroads for theories of decision-making. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 1, 304-309.

Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory:An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 263-292

Keltner, D., Gruenfeld, D. H., & Anderson, C. (2003). Power, approach, and inhibition. Psychological Review, 110(2), 265-284.

Kluger, A. N., Stephan, E., Ganzach, Y., & Hershkovitz, M. (2004). The effect of regulatory focus on the shape of probability-weighting function:Evidence from a cross-modality matching method. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 95, 20-39.

Knudsen, T. (2008). Reference groups and variable risk strategies. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 66, 22-36.

Kőszegi, B., & Rabin, M. (2006). A model of reference-dependent preferences. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 121, 1133-1165.

Larrick, R. P., Heath, C., & Wu, G. (2009). Goal-induced risk taking in negotiation and decision making. Social Cognition, 27, 342-364.

Lee, C. J., & Andrade, E. B. (2015). Fear, excitement, and financial risk-taking. Cognition and Emotion, 29, 178-187.

Leith, K. P., & Baumeister, R. F. (1996). Why do bad moods increase self-defeating behavior? Emotion, risk tasking, and self-regulation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 71, 1250-1267.

Lerner, J. S., & Tiedens, L. Z. (2006). Portrait of the angry decision maker:How appraisal tendencies shape anger's influence on cognition. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 19(2), 115-137.

Li, S. (1994). Equate-to-differentiate theory:A coherent bi-choice model across certainty, uncertainty and risk (Unpublished doctorial dissertation). University of New South Wales.

Li, S. (2004). A behavioral choice model when computational ability matters. Applied Intelligence, 20(2), 147-163.

Li, S., & Adams, A. S. (1995). Is there something more important behind framing? Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 62(2), 216-219.

Linde, J., & Sonnemans, J. (2015). Decisions under risk in a social and individual context:The limits of social preferences? Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 56, 62-71.

Locke, E. A., & Latham, G. P. (2002). Building a practically useful theory of goal setting and task motivation:A 35-year odyssey. American Psychologist, 57, 705-717.

MacDonald, M., McMullan, J. L., & Perrier, D. C. (2004). Gambling households in Canada. Journal of Gambling Studies, 20, 187-236.

Maner, J. K., Gailliot, M. T., Butz, D. A., & Peruche, B. M. (2007). Power, risk, and the status quo:Does power promote riskier or more conservative decision making? Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 33, 451-462.

March, J. G., & Shapira, Z. (1992). Variable risk preferences and the focus of attention. Psychological Review, 99, 172-183.

Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.

McNamara, J. M., & Houston, A. I. (1987). Starvation and predation as factors limiting population size. Ecology, 68, 1515-1519.

McNamara, J. M., & Houston, A. I. (1992). Risk-sensitive foraging:A review of the theory. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, 54(2-3), 355-378.

Mellers, B. A., Schwartz, A., Ho, K., & Ritov, I. (1997). Decision affect theory:Emotional reactions to the outcomes of risky options. Psychological Science, 8, 423-429.

Mishra, S. (2014). Decision-making under risk:Integrating perspectives from biology, economics, and psychology. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 18, 280-307.

Mishra, S., Barclay, P., & Lalumière, M. L. (2014). Competitive disadvantage facilitates risk taking. Evolution and Human Behavior, 35, 126-132.

Mishra, S., & Fiddick, L. (2012). Beyond gains and losses:The effect of need on risky choice in framed decisions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 102, 1136-1147.

Mishra, S., Gregson, M., & Lalumière, M. L. (2012). Framing effects and risk-sensitive decision making. British Journal of Psychology, 103, 83-97.

Mishra, S., & Lalumière, M. L. (2010). You can't always get what you want:The motivational effect of need on risk-sensitive decision-making. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 46, 605-611.

Mishra, S., Lalumière, M. L., Williams, R. J., & Daly, M. (2012). Determinants of risky decision-making and gambling:The effects of need and relative deprivation. Ontario Problem Gambling Research Centre Report. Ontario Problem Gambling Research Centre.

Mishra, S., Son Hing, L. S., & Lalumière, M. L. (2015). Inequality and risk-taking. Evolution Psychology, 13, DOI:10.1177/1474704915596295

Mittal, V., & Ross, W. T., Jr. (1998). The impact of positive and negative affect and issue framing on issue interpretation and risk taking. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 76, 298-324.

Morenoff, J. D., Sampson, R. J., & Raudenbush, S. W. (2001). Neighborhood inequality, collective efficacy, and the spatial dynamics of urban violence. Criminology, 39, 517-558.

Nagengast, A. J., Braun, D. A., & Wolpert, D. M. (2011). Risk sensitivity in a motor task with speed-accuracy trade-off. Journal of Neurophysiology, 105(6), 2668-2674.

Pietras, C. J., & Hackenberg, T. D. (2001). Risk-sensitive choice in humans as a function of an earnings budget. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 76, 1-19.

Pietras, C. J., Locey, M. L., & Hackenberg, T. D. (2003). Human risky choice under temporal constraints:Tests of an energy-budget model. Journal of the Experimental Analysis of Behavior, 80, 59-75.

Raiffa, H. (1982). The art and science of negotiation. Cambridge, MA:Belknap.

Raphael, S., & Winter-Ebmer, R. (2001). Identifying the effect of unemployment on crime. The Journal of Law and Economics, 44, 259-283.

Real, L,. & Caraco, T. (1986). Risk and foraging in stochastic environments. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics, 17, 371-390.

Rode, C., Cosmides, L., Hell, W., & Tooby, J. (1999). When and why do people avoid unknown probabilities in decisions under uncertainty? Testing some predictions from optimal foraging theory. Cognition, 72, 269-304.

Rohde, I. M. T., & Rohde, K. I. M. (2011). Risk attitudes in a social context. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 43, 205-225.

Room, R. (2005). Stigma, social inequality and alcohol and drug use. Drug and Alcohol Review, 24, 143-155.

Sapolsky, R. M. (2005). The influence of social hierarchy on primate health. Science, 308, 648-652.

Scheepers, D., & Ellemers, N. (2005). When the pressure is up:The assessment of social identity threat in low and high status groups. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 41, 192-200.

Scholer, A. A., Zou, X., Fujita, K., Stroessner, S. J., & Higgins, E. T. (2010). When risk seeking becomes a motivational necessity. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 99(2), 215-231.

Smallwood, P. D. (1996). An introduction to risk sensitivity:The use of Jensen's inequality to clarify evolutionary arguments of adaptation and constraint. American Zoologist, 36, 392-401.

Stephens, D. W. (1981). The logic of risk-sensitive foraging preferences. Animal Behavior, 29, 628-629.

Stephens, D. W., & Krebs, J. R. (1986). Foraging theory. Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press.

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1981). The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice. Science, 211, 453-458.

von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press.

Wang, X. T. (2002). Risk as reproductive variance. Evolution and Human Behavior, 23, 35-57.

Wang, X. T. (2008). Decision heuristics as predictors of public choice. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 21, 77-89.

Wang, X. T., & Johnson, J. G. (2012). A tri-reference point theory of decision making under risk. Journal of Experimental Psychology:General, 141, 743-756.

Welte, J. W., Wieczorek, W. F., Barnes, G. M., & Tidwell, M. C. O. (2006). Multiple risk factors for frequent and problem gambling:Individual, social, and ecological. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 36, 1548-1568.

Wilkinson, R. G., & Pickett, K. E. (2006). Income inequality and population health:A review and explanation of the evidence. Social Science and Medicine, 62, 1768-1784.

Wilkinson, R. G., & Pickett, K. E. (2007). The problems of relative deprivation:Why some societies do better than others. Social Science & Medicine, 65, 1965-1978.

Wilkinson, R. G., & Pickett, K. (2009). The spirit level:Why more equal societies almost always do better. London, England:Penguin.

Williams, G. C. (1966). Adaptation and natural selection. Princeton, NJ:Princeton University Press.

Wilson, M., & Daly, M. (1985). Competitiveness, risk taking, and violence:The young male syndrome. Ethology and Sociobiology, 6, 59-73.

Wilson, M., & Daly, M. (1997). Life expectancy, economic inequality, homicide, and reproductive timing in Chicago neighbourhoods. British Medical Journal, 314, 1271-1274.

Wohl, M. J. A., Branscombe, N. R., & Lister, J. J. (2014). When the going gets tough:Economic threat increases financial risk taking in games of chance. Social Psychological and Personality Science, 5, 211-217.

Zou, X., Scholer, A. A., & Higgins, E. T. (2014). In pursuit of progress:Promotion motivation and risk preference in the domain of gains. Journal of Personality and Sociall Psychology, 106, 183-201.