doi:

DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1047.2013.00829

Journal of Geo-information Science (地球信息科学学报) 2013/15:6 PP.829-839

Coupling LUCC and Hydrological Models to Predict Land Use Change and Hydrological Response under Multiple Scenarios


Abstract:
Land use and climate change under emission scenarios and their hydrological responses are some most concerned issues in watershed management. By coupling a land use land change model, Dyna-CLUE, and a hydrological model, SWAT, this paper predicts land use changes and hydrological responses in the upper and middle reaches of Heihe River Basin (HRB) under two emission scenarios, A1B and B1, from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). After calibration, the models validate their applicability in the study area. Scenario analysis shows no obvious land use changes in the upper and middle reaches of HRB with both emission scenarios while with a same scenario, land use changes present regional characteristics. In terms of future hydrological responses, if we only consider the climate change, comparing to the reference scenario that is created with historical data of 1990~2009, mean annual streamflow in the period of 2011~2030 shows a slight decrease in the upper reaches of HRB and an obvious increase in the middle reaches under the high emission scenario (A1B), and an obvious decrease and a slight decrease respectively under the low emission scenario (B1). Under a same scenario, hydrological responses present regional characteristics in the upper and middle reaches. As climate change also causes land use change which in turn impacts hydrological responses, we compare the joint impact case with the case of climate change only. Mean annual streamflow in the period of 2011~2030 becomes less in the upper reache and greater in the middle reache under the high emission scenario (A1B), and less in both reaches under the low emission scenario (B1). The analysis indicates that climate and land use changes under emission scenarios in the study area will lead to hydrological and water resources changes and the land use change may intensify or weaken hydrological responses caused by climate change.

Key words:model coupling,land use change,hydrological response,scenario analysis

ReleaseDate:2015-04-17 13:34:26



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